Latest Opinion Polls UK – Reform UK Leads with 28% in May 2026

Reform UK has established a clear lead in voting intention polls during spring 2026, with recent averages placing the party in the mid-to-high twenties. Labour and the Conservatives, by contrast, are polling in the high teens, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats have also attracted notable levels of support. The fragmentation across five parties polling in double digits means that translating vote share into seats under first-past-the-post is more complex than in recent elections.

What is the latest UK opinion poll today?

The most recent polling snapshot, drawn from multiple trackers, shows Reform UK ahead of all other parties. The 7-poll moving average calculated by PollCheck, as of 20 May 2026, puts Reform UK at 27.9%, with the Conservatives on 18.3% and Labour on 18.1%. A separate YouGov poll conducted on 4–5 May 2026 for The Times and Sky News recorded Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18%, and the Conservatives at 17%.

Key Insights from Current Polling

• Reform UK has overtaken both Labour and the Conservatives, a historic shift since the 2024 general election.
• The two main parties are tied at around 18%, suggesting a potential realignment of British politics.
• Seat projections under uniform swing models give Reform UK a large majority, but margin of error is high in individual constituencies.
• The 7-poll moving average smooths outlier polls and currently shows a Reform UK lead of approximately 10 points over second place.
• Polling volatility remains: recent polls from different firms show variation of up to 4 points for Reform UK.
• Five parties are polling in double digits, a level of fragmentation not seen in modern UK polling history.

Poll-of-Polls Snapshot

Data as of May 2026. Poll-of-polls from PollCheck; seat projection from Electoral Calculus using uniform swing.

Who is leading in the polls UK?

Reform UK is the clear frontrunner in spring 2026. The 7-poll moving average from PollCheck, as of 20 May 2026, places Reform UK on 27.9%, roughly 10 points ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour. The Electoral Calculus projection, based on current polling, gives Reform UK 350 seats under uniform swing assumptions.

The Electoral Reform Society’s April 2026 monthly average, which the society described as Reform UK’s lowest monthly average in 12 months, still put the party on 26.4%. That figure was comfortably ahead of Labour on 19.1% and the Conservatives on 18.6%. Even at its lowest point in a year, Reform UK maintained a lead of more than 7 points.

How the lead has changed

In the period following the July 2024 general election, Labour held a lead of around 30%. Reform UK rose slowly through late 2024 and early 2025. By mid-2025, Reform had overtaken the Conservatives and drawn level with Labour. From July 2025 onward, Reform UK established a clear lead, while both Labour and Conservative support declined to around 18%.

What is the current seat prediction from UK opinion polls?

Seat projections vary depending on the model used, but all point toward a parliament in which no single party has an easy path to a majority. The most detailed projection comes from More in Common’s April 2026 MRP model, which estimates Reform UK would win 324 seats, one short of the 325 needed for a majority. Labour would win 101 seats, the Conservatives 81, the Liberal Democrats 62, the SNP 26, and the Greens 22.

The Principalfish UK Election Maps projection, using a YouGov poll from late April 2026, shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as the largest party on 281 seats. The difference between these projections highlights how sensitive MRP models are to constituency-level assumptions and the specific polling inputs used.

Majority scenarios

If Reform UK falls short of a majority, several coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements become possible. The two largest potential partners would be the Conservatives or a grouping of smaller parties. However, the ideological distance between Reform UK and the other parties makes any formal coalition uncertain. A hung parliament with Reform UK as the largest party would open a period of negotiation unlike any in modern Westminster history.

How is Reform UK performing in the latest polls?

Reform UK’s polling trajectory shows a party that has risen from a fringe position in 2024 to become the consistent leader in voting intention by spring 2026. The YouGov poll of 4–5 May 2026 recorded Reform UK at 25%, with all other major parties clustered between 14% and 18%. The same poll recorded Restore Britain at 4%, the SNP at 3%, and Plaid Cymru at 1%.

More in Common’s April 2026 MRP noted that while Reform UK remained dominant in seat forecasts, the party had lost some ground since its January 2026 MRP projection. This suggests that Reform UK’s support, while strong, may have plateaued rather than continued its earlier rapid growth.

Regional variations in Reform support

In Wales, polling points to a close contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with Welsh Labour in third place. In London, all five major parties are polling at double digits simultaneously, making constituency-level outcomes especially hard to predict. The Economics Observatory has noted that local elections are expected to produce many no overall control councils, reflecting the broader fragmentation of the electorate.

How have UK opinion polls evolved since the 2024 election?

1. July 2024: UK general election. Labour wins a large majority, Conservatives lose power. Labour polling lead around 34%.
2. August 2024 – January 2025: Post-election period. Labour holds a lead of approximately 30%. Reform UK begins a slow but steady rise.
3. February 2025 – June 2025: Reform UK surges, overtakes the Conservatives, and draws level with Labour. The two-party system shows clear signs of strain.
4. July 2025 – May 2026: Reform UK establishes a clear lead. Labour and Conservative support falls to around 18% each. Greens and Liberal Democrats poll in double digits.
5. April 2026: More in Common MRP projects Reform UK on 324 seats. The Electoral Reform Society describes Reform UK’s 26.4% monthly average as its lowest in 12 months — still a comfortable lead.
6. 4–5 May 2026: YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News puts Reform UK on 25%, Labour 18%, Conservatives 17%, Greens 15%, Liberal Democrats 14%.
7. 20 May 2026: PollCheck 7-poll moving average: Reform UK 27.9%, Conservatives 18.3%, Labour 18.1%, Greens 14.0%, Liberal Democrats 13.3%.

What is certain and uncertain in the latest UK polls?

Why is Reform UK leading in the polls?

The current polling pattern reflects a realignment of British politics that has been building for several years. Disillusionment with both main parties after the 2024 general election outcome has created space for a third force. Conservative infighting and Labour’s early policy challenges have contributed to the decline of both parties’ poll numbers. Reform UK’s messaging on immigration and its broader “change” rhetoric has resonated with key voter groups, particularly in areas that previously voted Conservative.

Historical precedent suggests that third-party support can be overestimated in polls. The Liberal Democrats in 2010, UKIP in 2014, and the Greens in 2015 all polled higher at certain points than they ultimately achieved in general elections. Whether Reform UK’s current polling lead translates into a similar pattern or represents a durable shift remains a central question for election forecasters.

The Economics Observatory has noted that the old Labour-Conservative dominance has weakened significantly. In London, all five major parties polling at double digits simultaneously is unprecedented. In Wales, a close contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK with Welsh Labour in third would have been unthinkable a decade ago. These regional dynamics reinforce the sense that the current polling picture is not merely a temporary swing but may signal a multi-party future for UK general elections.

Which polling sources are most current and reliable?

The most frequently cited polling organisations in spring 2026 include YouGov, Opinium, Ipsos, and More in Common. Each has its own methodology, sample size, and weighting approach, which explains why individual polls can differ by several points on the same day. The PollCheck aggregate tracks polls from all major firms and updates when new data is published.

Wikipedia’s comprehensive opinion polling article provides historical data and methodological notes. Ipsos UK publishes its own polling with transparent methodology. More in Common’s voting intention trackers include weekly updates alongside issue-based polling.

“We are seeing a structural shift, but polls can be volatile — wait for the first by-election test.”

— Political analyst, cited in multiple polling commentaries

“The Green Party’s projected rise from 5 to 22 seats in More in Common’s MRP is especially striking — a fourfold increase that reflects a broader realignment of the progressive vote.”

— More in Common, April 2026 MRP analysis

What do the latest polls mean for the next UK general election?

The overall Westminster outlook is a highly fragmented parliament with a real possibility of no overall majority, even if Reform UK finishes first. The gap between vote share and seat count under first-past-the-post means that small shifts in constituency-level support could produce dramatically different parliamentary outcomes. Upcoming by-elections will provide the first real-world test of whether the polling trends hold when voters actually go to the polls. Readers may also wish to review the Labour Income Tax Plan – Full 2025 Breakdown and Analysis for context on one of the policy areas influencing current voting intention, and the National Living Wage 2025: UK & Ireland Rates Explained for background on fiscal policies affecting voters.

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